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Evaluation of stock market efficiency and selection of appropriate investment strategy
JAKLOVÁ, Kamila
The main assumption of market efficiency theory is that stock price developments are random. The first mention of this theory comes from the 1950s. The aim of this diploma thesis is to determine the degree of market efficiency based on market efficiency testing. The market can achieve weak forms of efficiency, medium forms of market efficiency and strong forms of efficiency, depending on how quickly stock responds to all information in the market. Market efficiency is tested based on Correlation Test and Runs Test. These are tests focused on the independence of changes in stock prices. The aim of these tests is to describe the relationship between stock prices at time t and t-1. The tests are performed on daily returns of 60 stocks from the five most important areas of the US stock market in the period 1/2015 to 12/2016. These are the areas of Information Technology, the Financial industry, the Pharmaceutical industry, the Food industry, and the Automotive industry. Furthermore, the presence of market anomalies is tested. If these special effects are confirmed, the presence of an efficient market can be refuted. These are the Monday and January effects. Based on the determined market efficiency, investment strategies are assigned to selected areas of the US market. Investment strategies can be divided into two groups of active strategy and passive strategy. The passive strategy assumes of long-term shareholding. An active strategy responds to market signals based on which the investor decides to buy or sell a stock in order to achieve above-average profits. Market buy / sell signals are calculated based on exponential moving averages. These are short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages applied to 60 selected stocks.
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Does the Role of the Rating Prior to the Announcement Explain Different Influence of Credit Rating Downgrades and Upgrades on Stock Prices?
Sedlář, Jan ; Andrlíková, Petra (advisor) ; Lelovská, Adriána (referee)
The thesis examines whether the role of credit rating prior to the announcement of credit rating change is the neglected factor explaining in large extent the paradox investigated in prior papers that downgrades influence the stock prices of company but upgrades not. It is motivated by the notion that credit rating changes from low credit rating classes influence the stock price of company more distinctively than changes from higher credit rating classes and there is proportionally more downgrades from low credit rating classes than upgrades. The large sample of credit rating changes including proportionally more upgrades from low credit rating classes than downgrades is collected and the results suggesting the influence of downgrades on stock prices of company and any influence of upgrades persist. Furthermore when controlled for credit rating prior to the announcement of credit rating change, magnitude of credit rating change, crossing the investment-speculative barrier, credit rating changes within and across credit rating categories, consecutive credit rating changes in the same direction and industry sector of issuer all the results are consistent with the original conclusions proposing significant stock price reaction to announcements of credit rating downgrades and no stock price response to...
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Multifractal nature of financial markets and its relationship to market efficiency
Jeřábek, Jakub ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The thesis shows the relationship between the persistence in the financial markets returns and their efficiency. It interprets the efficient markets hypothesis and provides various time series models for the analysis of financial markets. The concept of long memory is broadly presented and two main types of methods to estimate long memory are analysed - time domain and frequency domain methods. A Monte Carlo study is used to compare these methods and selected estimators are then used on real world data - exchange rate and stock market series. There is no evidence of long memory in the returns but the stock market volatilities show clear signs of persistence.
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The weather and stock returns
Černý, Patrik ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Čornanič, Aleš (referee)
This thesis examines a behavioral finance topic, the effect of weather on stock returns. The research was performed with the aim to verify formerly published results of various weather variables like sunshine, precipitation or temperature influencing stock markets. For the analysis Ordinary Least Squares regressions were implemented to investigate the relationships of stock returns and weather variables proposed in the previous literature as well as other market efficiency effects, a Monday and a January effect. In addition, GARCH model was carried out to check the influence of weather conditions on stock return volatility. Data used for the analysis consists of 24 emerging and 23 developed markets worldwide in the period 2006-2017. The results are not in support of the theory of weather affecting market trading which corresponds to the market efficiency theory. There seems to be no difference between the developed and emerging countries, not even countries' land area plays a role. However, in the thesis repeatedly appears significant evidence of the presence of the Monday effect. Keywords Behavioral finance, Weather effect, Market efficiency, Anomaly, GARCH 1
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Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements and (In)Efficiency of Financial Markets: Cross-sector Analysis
Prucek, Pavel ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
Using the sample of three largest stocks from seven main market sectors in the US, the thesis examines the effect of information content of earnings announce ments on market reaction across sectors. Our findings prove the asymmetry of market reaction to different earnings surprise categories with negative-surprise reaction being the most profound. The financial markets tend to be less ef ficient in response to negative earnings surprises. Leakage of information is not present suggesting that insider trading is well-mitigated on the US capital markets. Furthermore, we investigate the market reaction to earnings surprises in different sectors separately and find that Consumer Staples and IT sector tend to be the most sensitive, on the contrary Telecommunication and Energy sector tend to be the least sensitive. G14; G15; G30JEL Classification Keywords Earnings announcement; Market reaction; Mar ket efficiency; Cross-sector analysis; Corpo rate disclosure; Insider trading; Post-earnings- announcement drift A u th o r's e-m ail p a v e l.prucekSgm ail. com S u p erv iso r's e-m ail kocenda@f s v . c u n i. cz
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Entropy as a Measure of Predictability in Financial Time Series
Nahodil, Vladimír ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Wang, Yao (referee)
This work studies stock markets efficiency and predictability using the information-theoretic concepts of approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample entropy (SampEn) and compares them to the estimates of the Hurst exponent. This is assessed together with the property of distinguishing between developing and developed markets. Moreover, an investment strategy based on the value of the sample entropy is tested. ApEn shows very weak relationship with other measures and performs poorly as a measure of efficiency. SampEn and the Hurst exponent clearly confirm lower overall efficiency of developing markets. The sample entropy also forms quite strong downward linear relationship with hit-rates of forecasting models. ARMA shows highest hit-rates in periods with SampEn values around 1.6 - 1.7. This could be considered as an investment strategy with lower risk; however, also as one with potentially lower accumulated returns due to smaller investing windows.
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Event Study on Financial Announcements: New Evidence of Stock Sensitivity and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift
Čonka, Matěj ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Habiňák, Ladislav (referee)
This thesis investigates the presence of abnormal returns after the companies announce their earnings (earnings-price anomaly) on 23 companies listed on STOXX 50 Europe index. Weuse the event studies framework and we summarize main models for abnormal returns' estimation with closer look on the Market Model and CAPM. We do not find considerable value added when using more complex CAPM compared to the Market Model. The results show significant abnormal returns for good news and bad news earnings surprises with bigger market reaction on good news earnings surprises. The findings also provide the evidence of market inefficiency and the possibility of pre-announcement leakage of information. We find post-earnings-announcement drift for good news earnings surprisesandthepresenceofcontrarianreturns.
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Testing the Presence of Adaptive Switching Behavior in Equity Markets
Staněk, Filip ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Švarcová, Natálie (referee)
In many financial agent based models, the concept of adaptive switching be- havior is employed as a substitute for the, elegant yet unrealistic, assumption of rational expectations. Studies estimating these models however frequently suggest that agents do not behave adaptively. To better understand the source of this discrepancy, we propose a test for the presence of switching which does not require us to specify beforehand the exact form of the switching mecha- nism nor the strategies among which agents can choose. We verify the ability of the test to detect switching by Monte Carlo simulations and then apply it to stock prices from the New York Stock Exchange. The null hypothesis of the absence of switching is strongly rejected. Furthermore, we assess robustness of this finding by applying the test individually to various sub-sets of the data-set. The switching is prevalent in all considered sub-periods and in all groups of stocks categorized by traded volume. JEL Classification G02, G12, G14, D83, D84 Keywords Bounded Rationality, Adaptive Switching, In- tensity of Choice, Market Efficiency Author's e-mail stanek.fi@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jiri.kukacka@fsv.cuni.cz
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Hedge Effectiveness in Copper Futures Market: Case study for "Erdenet" Mining Co.Ltd in Mongolia
Khurelbaatar, Baigali ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to analyze the copper futures market in London Metal Exchange (LME) and to recommend appropriate hedging strategy in copper futures market to the Erdenet Mining Corporation in Mongolia. It uses daily official settlement copper prices of LME in the spot and 3 month futures markets from 2000-2014. Initially, we use cointegration test and ECM to investigate the copper market efficiency. Then OLS, ECM, GARCH, EGARCH and ECM-GARCH models are employed to compute different optimum hedge ratios. Finally, the hedge effectiveness is measured based on minimization of the value of AIC and SBIC. Our result indicate that copper futures market is inefficient. Hedge effectiveness comparison concludes that ECM model gives the best hedging performance. However, ECM-GARCH is accounted to be the best model for hedging strategy since it captures the time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity to ECM model. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Does the Role of the Rating Prior to the Announcement Explain Different Influence of Credit Rating Downgrades and Upgrades on Stock Prices?
Sedlář, Jan ; Andrlíková, Petra (advisor) ; Lelovská, Adriána (referee)
The thesis examines whether the role of credit rating prior to the announcement of credit rating change is the neglected factor explaining in large extent the paradox investigated in prior papers that downgrades influence the stock prices of company but upgrades not. It is motivated by the notion that credit rating changes from low credit rating classes influence the stock price of company more distinctively than changes from higher credit rating classes and there is proportionally more downgrades from low credit rating classes than upgrades. The large sample of credit rating changes including proportionally more upgrades from low credit rating classes than downgrades is collected and the results suggesting the influence of downgrades on stock prices of company and any influence of upgrades persist. Furthermore when controlled for credit rating prior to the announcement of credit rating change, magnitude of credit rating change, crossing the investment-speculative barrier, credit rating changes within and across credit rating categories, consecutive credit rating changes in the same direction and industry sector of issuer all the results are consistent with the original conclusions proposing significant stock price reaction to announcements of credit rating downgrades and no stock price response to...
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